Scotland is often considered to be Britain’s Catalonia. They want independence, but, as so often in life, the British will just not let them go. Many, including Nicola Sturgeon have called for a second Scottish independence referendum, but will it pass or not? If so, how will it play out?
History of Scotland
As with Catalonia (and many other regions of the globe), Scotland has a rich history. This is a history free from oppression, which some see Scotland is currently under as part of the commonwealth.
Scotland was settled by the Picts and the Scots to begin with (who migrated from modern-day Northern Ireland). There, they fought often with the Romans in an attempt to keep their independence. Ultimately, the Romans failed miserably, and were forced to build Hadrian’s Wall (named after Emperor Hadrian who had it built).
Since then, the Scots and Picts mixed, inter-breeding to become one.
They came together to found clans, houses and even kingdoms come the fall of Rome. By far the largest kingdom was the Kingdom of Alba. This kingdom eventually became the Kingdom of Scotland.
Scotland acted almost independently from the rest of Europe (and certainly from its neighbor to the south, England). England and Scotland continually fought, with one trying to press their power over the other.
This coninued up until 1603 and the end of the Tudor dynasty. In 1603, England requested that the King of Scotland- James VI, would become James I of England. Thus, uniting the two kingdoms as one, mirroring the foundation of Scotland itself.
Whilst England and Scotland had the same monarch, they were not the same country. This would not come about until 1714, under the reign of Queen Anne, in the Act of Union, which officially madde England and Scotland into Great Britain.
Since then, the two kingdoms have been through a lot. However, the greatest achievement between them is obviously the British Empire, which was founded on the backs of both Scottish and Englishmen working side by side.
To find out more about the history of Scotland, watch this awesome YouTube video!
However, many in Scotland have noticed one great difference between the two sides of the union. On one side, England (especially areas such as London) are seeing an unprecedented economic boom as they have done for years. However, Scotland on the other half have seen relatively nothing, besides investment in places such as Edinburgh and Glasgow.
This North-South ‘divide’ as they call it has led to many in Scotland calling for a Scottish independence referendum, which was granted in 2014, where the “No” side won.
Since then, many, especially those who are part of the Scottish National Party have called for a second Scottish independence referendum.
Naturally, many believe that this is a joke, and/or a power play by those in the Scottish Parliament. Many also believe that it would be a simple repeat of the previous Scottish independence referendum, where economically speaking, Scotland would be better off staying in the union.
How likely is a second Scottish independence referendum?
Many people believe that a second Scottish independence referendum is unnecessary, as it would simply have the same outcome as the one in 2014.
Mirroring Catalonia, when Sturgeon requested permission from Boris Johnson to hold another referendum, he sternly refused to give such permission. In his response letter, he stated in part:
The people of Scotland voted decisively on that promise to keep our United Kingdom together […] The U.K. government will continue to uphold the democratic decision [made in 2014]
However, some sources have argued that a second Scottish independence referendum is necessary. They claim that there are more divisive issues in Scotland now, than there was in 2014, mainly: Brexit.
As with many things, the two main members of the union disagree. Where England mainly voted leave, their younger brother to the north voted remain.
This naturally leave the Scottish in a predicament: leave the EU (which was a main reason for voting “no” in 2014) via Brexit or leave Britain and rejoin the EU later on.
This too has caused enough problems. Many of those who call for a second Scottish independence referendum claim that the Scottish people no longer has anything to lose. Either way, they are leaving the EU.
They also claim that 61% of Scottish voters would back a second Scottish independence referendum. They also claim that this is the only reason why Westminster and Boris Johnson will not allow a second Scottish independence referendum.
However, many have doubted the validity of those claims as they come from a pro-independence think-tank Progress Scotland.
What would the outcome of a second Scottish independence referendum?
With the potential for a second Scottish independence referendum being potentially very close, and rather divisive, no one can predict the likely outcome.
Both sides and independents are quoting three different sets of results. The vote “yes” campaign is quoting numbers that would make it a landslide victory for the “yes” campaign. The “no” campaign are quoting numbers that would make it a landslide victory for the “no” campaign. Independents however, are quoting numbers that would make it a 50-50 split, potentially splitting Scotland into two.
I would guess that if there were to be a second Scottish referendum, it would be much the same to that of the first. As Scotland said in 2014, whilst they would love to be independent from England, economically speaking, it would be more beneficial to Scotland to remain a part of the union.
For many Scottish people, a split from the UK would spell disaster for them. For many, they are employed by British businesses, based in London. This would give them one of two options: stay in Scotland and lose their job, or move to England and move away from their family, friends and loved ones.
There would also be an issue of a hard border between England and Scotland, something that has never happened before (minus Hadrian’s wall of course). This would almost certainly create a difficult issue, as a border would cut straight through many villages, towns and settlements on the border!
Will there be a second Scottish independence referendum? What will the outcome be? Tell us in the comments!