Recently, Boris Johnson sought an extension to Article 50, something that was granted, but Emmanuel Macron played hardball. There was a lot of speculation as to whether Emmanuel Macron would agree to such an extension to Brexit.
Who is Emmanuel Macron?
Before we delve deeper, we need to establish some base facts on Emmanuel Macron, this is not a comprehensive biography to any means. However, Emmanuel Macron is the President of France, and by extension, France is the third biggest economy in all of Europe.
Macron previously worked as a writer and as a financial inspector for the IGF. However, Macron has also worked in a high paid investment banker position at Rothschild et Cie. Banque, leaving them in 2012. In 2016, he joined the centrist, En Marche, from which he ran for president of France. In 2016, he successful defeated Marine Le Pen, to become the 25th President of France.
Why was Emmanuel Macron playing hardball?
If you ever took one thing away from medieval history, it was probably that the French hate the English, and the feeling is mutual. Putting the Anglo-French rivalry aside, the answer to the question is purely economic.
Emmanuel Macron has been dealing with finances for more than 20 years, and he knows a recession is coming. Macron can see that the Brexit situation is wreaking havoc on the economy. This is because, whilst it is highly reported on the nature of the British and American stock exchanges, few are talking about the French stock market.
The French stock market too, is being affected by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Many French companies are international too, and have major operations in the UK. Take for instance, Airbus, Axa, BNP Paribas Fortis, all these companies have substantial stake in the UK. They know that if the British economy collapses, so too will the French stock market, and by extension, their own stock prices.
Macron can see that if the French stock market collapses, there will be a recession in France too, not just the UK. Emmanuel Macron knows that if there is a recession in France, he will have to bail out the French economy, namely, the major French companies. This is something that will obviously not sit with the general public, even if it saves those same people from loosing their homes.
So why does Macron insist that Brexit shouldn’t be delayed any further
Whilst I’m sure Macron knows that the effects of a no-deal Brexit will have disastrous affects on the French economy, the answer is that this is a fact of life. The economy will always collapse every 5-10 years if left to its own devices.
Macron can see that the British Parliament’s indecisiveness is harming his own economy. Macron understands that Brexit needs to be solved sooner rather than later. Macron’s opinions will be “If they can’t sort a deal out for the Third Prime Minister running, maybe they don’t want a deal at all.” Just maybe Macron would say that with a bit more French.
Why will Macron kill any future extension plans?
Emmanuel Macron was hesitant to agree to the most recent deadline extension, he only agreed after assurances that there will be a deal before January. If a deal is not reached before January 31, it is highly likely that Emmanuel Macron will dig his feet in and say to Boris Johnson “No!”
Obviously, this will cause a recession in both the UK and the rest of Europe, and perhaps the rest of the world. However, Macron knows that France will come out of it, a much better, and far stronger nation. In the end, his heel-digging, will probably immortalise him as one of France’s best Presidents.
Would Emmanuel Macron be justified?
In my opinion, yes, Emmanuel Macron has said yes far too many times. In all honesty, I’m surprised that Macron hasn’t done it sooner, personally, I’d tell Boris to “Bugger off!” as he once put it.
Emmanuel Macron would be totally within his rights to deny the next extension that was requested. Personally, I didn’t vote in the Brexit vote, simply because I could see that it was a bad idea either way.
How will Boris Johnson take this news?
It’s likely that Boris Johnson would take the news of Emmanuel Macron rejecting any future extension requests happily. Johnson was an avid supporter of Brexit, and even going as far to get the Brexit Bus involved!
Boris Johnson said before the extension request was submitted, that we were leaving on the 31st with or without a deal. So any possibility Macron will help him achieve an “independent” Britain, will surely be good news.
Macron believes that Johnson is a complete and utter idiot, and Johnson thinks Macron is a stuck-up moron. However, I believe that Macron DOES NOT want a no-deal Brexit, so if Boris Johnson is attempting to get Macron to help him, he is mistaken.
However, the fiscal policy for the EU is due for review in March 2020, so if Britain and the EU can’t hammer home a deal, there are two options. #1- No Brexit at all, where Britain withdraws Article 50. #2- No-deal, I may have said that Macron doesn’t want a no-deal, but fiscal policy is far more important, and that will take priority.
Is there any way to get around this?
The answer is long, but in essence, not really, no. The only way is for the French people to rise up and overthrow Emmanuel Macron, and replace him with someone else.
There is a possibility of a bloodless transition of power, but that would require the French presidential election to happen. However, there is only one small problem, the next French presidential election, isn’t until April 2022!
Essentially, there is no escape from the French side, we can only hope that the upcoming general election provides a good British leader.
I hope you have enjoyed this analysis article, what do you think Emmanuel Macron will do? Do you agree with my analysis? If not, tell me why! Tell me in the comments (and please, no French surrender jokes, there almost as old as the history of French surrender itself)!