Chaos is gripping Downing Street and Parliament. Polls indicate that we are heading for a general election. But why?
With a general election looking inevitable, politicians have been scrambling for support. The PM has twice called for a general election at the end of October, but twice has been rejected.
Rival MPs have suggested they will back a national poll. However, only if a no deal has been ruled out.
However polls do not reflect the Labour-Conservative divide.
How do the polls reflect a potential general election?
Smaller parties have gained larger support. Parties like the Lib Dems; Brexit Party and the Greens have gained support. The support us come as a direct loss to the Conservatives and Labour leaders.
Polls suggest that the shift has been due to the media. The media has talked negatively about the Tories and Labour leaders. Making it abundantly clear who has made Brexit worse.
Comres reports that the Conservative-Labour divide has become less. 28% for Conservatives and 27% for Labour. Whilst Lib Dems have grown to 20%, Brexit Party, 13%, and Green Party, 5%. (The sample size was 2,009 people).
Opinium reports that Conservative has declined, but is still ahead of Labour. Conservative with 37% and 25% for Labour. The Lib Dems have grown to 16%, Brexit Party, 13%, Green, 2%. (Sample size was 2,002).
What would happen in a General Election?
With that being said, who would come out as the victor? Whilst it is quite early, scandals may happen, not to mention Brexit. It’s likely that the Labour Party will win.
Why?
This is quite simple- Brexit. The Conservatives have been seen to have made a mess of Brexit. David Cameron resigned, Theresa May became PM, and subsequently resigned. Now Boris Johnson is the PM, but all the way through there has been one opponent- Jeremy Corbyn.
He will use this to his advantage. He will claim to be a man of the people. He may have to partner with the Lib Dems, but he doesn’t care. And when he wins, he will bring his socialist agenda to fruition.
He will stop Brexit. Using this for years to come as his crowning achievement. And when all is said and done, the UK will pay for it in the end…